Austin ISD is grappling with a decline in student enrollment. According to its 2023-24 School District Demographic Analysis report, the district is projected to enroll 73,495 students for the upcoming 2024-25 school year, a decrease of 212 students over last year. AISD expects this enrollment decline to continue, dropping by nearly 3,000 students in the next five years. Although the trend is expected to slow somewhat, AISD anticipates a continued decline over the published 10-year forecast period, resulting in a projected enrollment of just over 69,000 students for the 2033-34 school year.
What is driving this decline? The pandemic hit AISD particularly hard. During the 2020-21 school year, enrollment declined by 5,815 students, primarily driven by the elementary grades. Early education and kindergarten enrollment numbers were especially impacted as many parents chose to delay starting school altogether. AISD initially struggled to get its remote learning solution up and running quickly and effectively, leaving many parents and students frustrated and disillusioned. In response, numerous families elected to homeschool, enroll in already existing, robust online school options, or switch to private schools where class sizes were smaller and there was less risk of exposure to COVID-19. Parents were desperate for their children to learn without interruption as the country worried about the long-term implications of learning gaps. Although the district saw many students return the following school year, many families chose to continue with their choice of new school.
Currently, AISD’s enrollment is being negatively impacted by the draw of charter schools. Data from the Texas Education Agency, TEA, reveals that over 16,222 former AISD students currently attend a different district or a charter school. Of that number, TEA reported that over 90 percent of students who transferred out of AISD for the 2023-2024 school year did so to attend a charter school. TEA expects this trend to continue, projecting the total number of students transferring out of AISD to increase by an estimated 1,349 in the next five years.
Public charter schools are tuition-free and offer “open enrollment,” meaning that any student can apply and be accepted. If the number of students applying to a charter is greater than the number of openings, admission is decided by a lottery process.
This sustained loss of students creates a real financial problem for AISD. Public school districts in Texas are subject to what is known as “recapture” or “Robin Hood.” Under recapture, the State of Texas takes local property tax revenues from public school districts deemed to be wealthier and uses them to help balance the state budget. Initially, Robin Hood intended to distribute those funds to less financially advantaged districts for education funding, but this is no longer the primary use of the funds.
AISD is considered a property-rich school district and is therefore required by the state to turn over a portion of its funding to the state. It is projected that an estimated 56.4 percent of all local tax revenue will be subject to recapture for the 2024 fiscal year, equating to over $940 million submitted in recaptured funds. From fiscal year 2001 to fiscal year 2024, AISD will have been required to turn over almost $7 billion in recapture monies. These are tax dollars that will never make it to the classroom. Neither will the money be used for staffing positions or building safety improvements.
In Texas, independent school districts and charter schools both receive state funds based on the average daily attendance of their students. However, unlike independent school districts, open-enrollment charter schools do not receive any funding from local tax revenue but they are also not subject to recapture.
As its student enrollment numbers continue to decline, so does the amount of money AISD receives based on average daily student attendance. This decrease in attendance funding is exacerbated by the required recapture payments – based on increasing property values, they continue to climb. This has put an increasing strain on the operating budget for the district.
Currently, the district is exploring ways to increase enrollment. Proposed solutions include improving middle school performance so that families do not feel the need to transfer elsewhere, the addition of pre-K programs, efforts to engage families that left the district and creating targeted enrollment campaigns for less populated campuses.
Alison Bogle is a writer living in Austin with her husband and three children. A former fourth grade teacher, she now enjoys writing about children and education. You can also catch her talking about articles from Austin Family magazine each Thursday morning on FOX 7 Austin.
